On Thursday, the U.S. stock market presented a complex and compelling picture, showcasing a stark divergence among the three major indices, which captivated the attention of countless investors. The Dow Jones Industrial Average halted its two-day uptrend, experiencing a notable pullback, ultimately closing down 125.65 points at 44,747.63, reflecting a decline of 0.28%. In sharp contrast, the Nasdaq Composite and the S&P 500 indices continued their upward momentum, achieving a third consecutive day of gains. The Nasdaq rose by 99.66 points, ending at 19,791.99, and registering an increase of 0.51%. Similarly, the S&P 500 Index added 22.09 points to close at 6,083.57, up by 0.36%. This mixed performance illustrates the varied reactions of different sectors and types of stocks in the current economic climate influenced by various news factors.
In terms of sector performance, large technology stocks predominantly showed upward trends, acting as significant driving forces behind the increases in both the Nasdaq and the S&P 500. Nvidia stood out on this day, appreciating by over 3%. Recognized as a frontrunner in the global AI chip sector, Nvidia has gained substantial favor from investors due to its consistent innovations in chip technology and enduring growth in market share. With the rapid escalations in the AI industry, demand for high-performance computing chips has surged, leaving Nvidia's products in short supply in the market. Investors widely regard the company’s performance and growth prospects favorably, allowing its stock price to maintain vigorous upward momentum recently. Likewise, Amazon’s stock rose by more than 1%. Despite its first-quarter outlook falling short of market expectations, the company reported earnings per share that exceeded forecasts at $1.86, significantly above the anticipated $1.48.
The revenue of $187.8 billion also surpassed the expected $187.33 billion, while net profits reached $20 billion, far exceeding the projected $15.9 billion. Furthermore, with an operating profit margin of 11.3%, above the expected 10.1%, these stellar results provided critical support for its stock price. Other tech giants like Facebook, Microsoft, and Apple witnessed gains of 0.61%, 0.3%, and 0.16% respectively, showcasing their formidable competitiveness and market impact across their respective domains. Their diverse business developments and ongoing technological innovations keep investors optimistic about future advancements. Conversely, Tesla encountered a dip of over 1%, despite being a leader in the electric vehicle sector. Recent challenges such as supply chain issues, heightened market competition, and policy changes in certain regions have led to fluctuations in its stock price.
Banking stocks exhibited collective gains, emerging as a significant highlight in the market on that day. JPMorgan increased by over 2%, Goldman Sachs rose by more than 1%, Citigroup surged beyond 3%, Morgan Stanley climbed past 1%, Bank of America gained in excess of 1%, and Wells Fargo also demonstrated a gain of over 1%. This collective uptick in banking shares can largely be attributed to the relative stability of the U.S. economy recently, evidenced by an increase in banking activity and elevated profit expectations. Moreover, positive expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy also contributed positively to bank stocks. Should the Federal Reserve maintain current interest rates or adopt a relatively accommodative monetary stance, it would lower banks' capital costs, thereby enhancing their profitability.
There has been speculations regarding whether Jinshan Office will incorporate DeepSeek. Insiders close to Jinshan Office have indicated that the company is currently testing compatibility with DeepSeek, which will determine future collaboration based on subsequent developments. This piece of news underscores the continuous advancements in technology and applications by domestic large models, garnering significant market attention and positioning itself for a potential competitive edge in future market scenarios. This could affect the broader tech industry landscape and provide investors with new avenues for investment opportunities and strategic thought.
Amazon's first-quarter earnings forecast, however, fell below market expectations, causing significant turbulence in the market. On February 6, Amazon released its financial report indicating that while its fourth-quarter performance for 2024 surpassed expectations, forecasts for first-quarter revenues were anticipated to be between $151 billion and $155.5 billion, falling short of analysts’ expectations of $158.64 billion. The expected first-quarter operating profit margin of $14 billion to $18 billion was also below analyst predictions of $18.24 billion. Despite Amazon shares closing up 1.13% on Thursday, the stock saw a drop of over 5% in after-hours trading post-earning report, revealing the market's apprehension regarding Amazon's future projections.
From an economic data standpoint, the U.S. Labor Department reported an increase of 11,000 in initial claims for unemployment benefits, reaching a total of 219,000, exceeding the estimate of 213,000. The forecasts from 44 economists ranged between 205,000 to 230,000. The four-week moving average stood at 216,800. For the week ending January 25, continuing claims for unemployment benefits rose by 36,000 to 1.886 million. This data shows a mild rise in initial unemployment claims last week, yet still reflects a relatively subdued condition. Investors are keenly awaiting the upcoming nonfarm payroll report being released on Friday - a crucial indicator that assesses the state of the employment market and the trajectory of Federal Reserve interest rates. The implications of the nonfarm data will inevitably sway the market’s judgment concerning America's economic outlook, directly influencing investors' choices.
Gaurav Mallik from Pallas Capital Advisors offered insights regarding the market situation, asserting that as long as Friday’s employment report indicates the addition of 170,000 to 200,000 jobs for the month, the market should be capable of absorbing this data without triggering major fluctuations. This range indicates a relatively stable labor market and a healthy economic landscape. However, he cautionarily noted that if significantly stronger job numbers were reported, it might diminish the Federal Reserve's inclination to reduce interest rates this year, as robust employment figures imply economic overheating. In such a scenario, the Fed could opt to maintain current rates or even implement hikes to curb inflation. Conversely, should the numbers fall well below expectations, concerns regarding labor market weakness could emerge, potentially leading to investor pessimism towards the economic outlook and triggering considerable market volatility.
In summary, the diverse trajectories witnessed in the U.S. stock market on Thursday were shaped by a myriad of factors. The differing performances between major technology and banking stocks, the implications of Amazon’s financial outlook, developments related to domestic large models, and current economic data all played crucial roles in shaping market sentiments and influencing investor decisions. The upcoming nonfarm payroll report is poised to emerge as a focal point of market attention, with its outcomes likely having a substantial impact on future market movements. Investors must stay vigilant and astutely adjust their investment strategies based on the latest revelations and economic data.
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